Business Opportunities & Risks in North America
Economy and Geopolitics
North America is at a crossroads, marked by profound economic and geopolitical dynamics. The United States and Canada navigate a complex mix of global challenges, internal adjustments, and regional priorities.
USA: Struggle for stability and growth
The US economy is proving remarkably resilient despite a period of uncertainty. After a period of rising interest rates initiated by the Federal Reserve in 2023 and 2024 to fight inflation, signs seem to point to easing. Inflation is close to the 2% target in 2025, but the cost of this stabilisation has been high: slowing growth and an unemployment rate that remains above its historical average. The innovative strength of the USA remains a central pillar of economic dynamism. Sectors such as artificial intelligence, green technologies and the semiconductor industry benefit from government support and global demand.
At the same time, social inequality remains a major challenge. The negotiations on a progressive tax reform and investments in infrastructure for disadvantaged regions are central topics of the domestic political debate.
Canada: Focus on sustainability
Canada has further cemented its position as a global leader in sustainability. The government is committed to green energy and has consistently pushed ahead with ambitious climate targets, including a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Increased investment in wind, solar and hydrogen technologies has not only created new jobs, but also further reduced dependence on fossil fuels.
At the same time, Canada is facing external challenges. Global competition for critical minerals, which are crucial for battery technologies and renewable energy, has highlighted Canada’s importance as an exporter of strategic resources. The government is trying to find a balance between the economic use of these resources and the maintenance of ecological standards.
Geopolitical tensions and alliances
The US remains at the center of global geopolitical tensions. Relations with China remain tense, with the conflict increasingly focused on technological and economic fields. While sanctions and export controls have reduced dependence on Chinese supply chains, the international trade order is more fragmented than ever. At the same time, the US is expanding its relations with allies. Cooperation with the European Union and countries in Asia-Pacific – including Japan, Australia and India – is of strategic importance. Trade agreements and military cooperation are being deepened in order to counteract a “China-centered” world order.
Canada is pursuing a more differentiated strategy. As a member of the G7 and a close partner of the US, Ottawa is trying to preserve its role as a mediator between Western nations and China. At the same time, Canada is intensifying its relations with countries such as India and the ASEAN countries in order to open up new markets and minimize geopolitical dependencies.
Perspectives for North America
The outlook is characterized by cautious optimism. As economic stabilization progresses, social and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. The ability of the U.S. and Canada to find long-term solutions to challenges such as climate change, inequality, and the global order will be critical. A crucial issue remains the role of North America in a world that is increasingly characterized by multipolar power structures. The next few years will show whether the region can maintain its economic and geopolitical leadership role – or whether internal conflicts and external rivalries will contribute to a reshaping of the global order.