Geopolitical Changes and Areas of Tension

Strategic Aspects for Companies

Since 2022, the world has undergone profound geopolitical changes that have affected the global balance of power and created new areas of tension. This also has an impact on the economy. That’s why because entrepreneurs and executives of international companies have to keep an eye on geopolitical developments when it comes to expansion into new markets, investments and also restructurings.

Europe: The Ukraine war and its consequences

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked one of the most serious geopolitical developments in recent decades – with implications for Europe and beyond. For example, NATO has strengthened its presence in Eastern Europe; Sweden and Finland have joined the military alliance. In addition, the conflict led to closer cooperation between the EU and the US and an increased focus on measures to become independent of Russian energy.

Asia: China’s growing influence and tensions in the Pacific

In Asia, China has further expanded its position as a geopolitical superpower. Tensions over Taiwan intensified, especially due to China’s increased military activities in the Taiwan Strait and diplomatic visits by Western politicians to Taiwan. At the same time, the region has gained new momentum through the expansion of the AUKUS security alliance (Australia, Great Britain, USA) and increased cooperation within the framework of the Quad alliance (USA, India, Australia, Japan). The Indo-Pacific remains a flashpoint as China’s claim to power in the South China Sea continues to create tensions.

Middle East: New alliances and unresolved conflicts

Significant geopolitical shifts are also taking place in the Middle East. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediated by China, could contribute to the stabilization of the region in the long term. At the same time, Iran remains a factor of uncertainty due to its nuclear program and domestic political unrest. Israel is intensifying its relations with Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates, but tensions with the Palestinians remain unresolved. In addition, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has not yet had foreseeable consequences and Russian influence in the region has been weakened as a result.

Africa: Strategic Competition and Internal Conflicts

Africa is increasingly the scene of rivalry between international actors such as China, Russia and Western states. While China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, Russia is expanding its presence through military support and raw material agreements. On the continent, conflicts such as the ongoing civil war in Ethiopia or the uncertainties in the Sahel region are weighing on stability.

South America: Political upheavals and geopolitical ambitions

In South America, countries such as Brazil and Mexico are increasingly striving to take a more independent role in global politics. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva has emphasized the importance of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and pleaded for a multipolar world order. At the same time, domestic political crises and social unrest are destabilizing countries such as Peru and Venezuela. In Argentina, an economic turnaround has been initiated with comprehensive reforms: President Milei is focusing on growth in the private sector instead of state subsidies. The number of ministries has been almost halved and state authorities have been streamlined. The economy is growing, but so is social inequality.

Areas of tension

In addition to the existing conflicts, there are several regions where new geopolitical tensions are emerging:

  • Arctic: Climate change is opening up new shipping routes and making resources more accessible, leading to rivalries between the coastal states, including Russia, the US and Canada.
  • West Africa: The increasing influence of jihadist groups and political instability after several military coups create an uncertain situation.
  • Southeast Asia: The rivalry between China and the U.S. could lead to further conflicts in the region, especially over trade routes and zones of influence.

The geopolitical developments of recent years show that the world order is changing. While established alliances are developing new dynamics, potentially destabilizing conflicts are emerging in other regions. Multilateral cooperation remains crucial to address these challenges and promote peace and stability.